Volume 19, Issue 3 (9-2025)
مرتع 2025, 19(3): 283-297 |
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Mohajer Ghaderabadi S, Azimi M, Piri Sahragard H, Riyazinia V. Predicting the potential habitat distribution of Orchis maculata L. via maximum entropy model in the eastern rangeland of Golestan province rangelands. مرتع 2025; 19 (3) :283-297
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1307-en.html
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1307-en.html
Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Water and Soil, University of Zabol, Zabol
Abstract: (1589 Views)
Introduction and Objective: Effective rangeland management requires knowledge of the spatial distribution of plant species, which is a key factor in assessing vegetation dynamics across regions. Orchis maculata (Persian name: Sa’alb) is a perennial orchid that has attracted global attention from the food and pharmaceutical industries due to the presence of valuable nutritional and medicinal compounds in its underground tubers. However, habitat loss and overharvesting have led to a decline in its natural populations, prompting researchers to model its potential distribution. The aim of this study was to investigate the environmental factors influencing the potential habitat distribution of O. maculata using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method in the eastern rangelands of Golestan Province.
Methodology: Random-systematic sampling was conducted within the target grassland ecosystem. A total of 118 occurrences of O. maculata were recorded across the study area using GPS. To evaluate the predictive performance of the MaxEnt model, the ROC curve validation method and Jackknife test were applied.
Results: Modeling results showed that the MaxEnt algorithm achieved high accuracy (AUC = 0.95) in predicting the potential habitat distribution of O. maculata, a species with a restricted range and recognized medicinal and nutritional importance. The final distribution map indicated that approximately 42.7% of the study area has moderate to high suitability for the species, with the southern (27.4%) and eastern (15.3%) regions showing the highest likelihood of establishment. Predictions further revealed that the greatest probability of occurrence was at elevations between 1200 and 1400 meters above sea level. Variable importance analysis demonstrated that two physiographic factors -elevation (26.1%) and slope aspect (19.2%)- together explained 45.3% of the variation in species distribution. Among climatic variables, the mean temperature of the growing season (18.4%) was the most influential. The species’ response indicated that the probability of presence is significantly higher within a temperature range of 0–18°C, while occurrence declines sharply above 18°C. The distribution map also showed that approximately 6% of the study area (592.12 hectares) exhibits high suitability for species establishment. These findings highlight the strong influence of both physiographic and climatic conditions on the potential distribution of O. maculata in the region.
Conclusion: Physiographic variables such as elevation and slope direction contributed more strongly to habitat suitability than other factors. Therefore, implementing conservation and restoration strategies within medium- and long-term management programs is essential to ensure the persistence and distribution of O. maculata. Preventing infrastructure development, human disturbance, and land-use changes in suitable habitats is also necessary to safeguard this unique species.
Methodology: Random-systematic sampling was conducted within the target grassland ecosystem. A total of 118 occurrences of O. maculata were recorded across the study area using GPS. To evaluate the predictive performance of the MaxEnt model, the ROC curve validation method and Jackknife test were applied.
Results: Modeling results showed that the MaxEnt algorithm achieved high accuracy (AUC = 0.95) in predicting the potential habitat distribution of O. maculata, a species with a restricted range and recognized medicinal and nutritional importance. The final distribution map indicated that approximately 42.7% of the study area has moderate to high suitability for the species, with the southern (27.4%) and eastern (15.3%) regions showing the highest likelihood of establishment. Predictions further revealed that the greatest probability of occurrence was at elevations between 1200 and 1400 meters above sea level. Variable importance analysis demonstrated that two physiographic factors -elevation (26.1%) and slope aspect (19.2%)- together explained 45.3% of the variation in species distribution. Among climatic variables, the mean temperature of the growing season (18.4%) was the most influential. The species’ response indicated that the probability of presence is significantly higher within a temperature range of 0–18°C, while occurrence declines sharply above 18°C. The distribution map also showed that approximately 6% of the study area (592.12 hectares) exhibits high suitability for species establishment. These findings highlight the strong influence of both physiographic and climatic conditions on the potential distribution of O. maculata in the region.
Conclusion: Physiographic variables such as elevation and slope direction contributed more strongly to habitat suitability than other factors. Therefore, implementing conservation and restoration strategies within medium- and long-term management programs is essential to ensure the persistence and distribution of O. maculata. Preventing infrastructure development, human disturbance, and land-use changes in suitable habitats is also necessary to safeguard this unique species.
Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2025/02/13 | Accepted: 2025/06/28 | Published: 2025/09/1
Received: 2025/02/13 | Accepted: 2025/06/28 | Published: 2025/09/1
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