fa امکان‌سنجی اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی تغییر کاربری اراضی مرتعی شرق استان مازندران به کاربری‌های جدید تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">امروزه&nbsp; عرصه‌های منابع طبیعی به‌عنوان یک عامل تولیدی جهت رشد و توسعه اقتصادی در کشور&shy;های در حال توسعه؛ در معرض تهدید تغییر کاربری قرار دارند. مراتع</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">بواسطه</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">تولید</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">کالا</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">و</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">خدمات</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">اکوسیستمی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">از</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">جنبه</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">های</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">اقتصادی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">و زیست‌محیطی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">بسیار</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">ارزشمند</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">بوده</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">و</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">تغییر</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">آن</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">نیازمند</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">یک</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">ارزیابی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">و</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">تحلیل</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">اقتصادی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">جامع</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">و</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">کامل</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">است. هدف این تحقیق، تحلیل هزینه منفعت تغییر کاربری اراضی مرتعی شرق استان مازندران به کاربری‌های جدید</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">با</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">در</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">نظر</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">گرفتن</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">هزینه‌های</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">زیست‌محیطی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">در</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">کنار</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">سایر</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">هزینه‌ها و</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">منافع</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">حاصله</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">و</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">همچنین</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">برآورد</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">خسارت زیست‌محیطی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">آن</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">است. مقادیر هزینه‌ای و منفعتی تغییر کاربری از سال 1384 تا 1395 محاسبه گردیده و در ادامه با استفاده از متوسط نرخ تورم سالانه تا سال 1414 طی یک دوره 30 ساله تنزیل گردیده اند. نتایج </span></span><span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">مدل</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">ارزیابی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">ایستا،</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">همه</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">12</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">سناریو</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">تغییر</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">کاربری</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">فعلی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">و</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">محتمل</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">نشان داد</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">که</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">هیچ</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">یک</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">از</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">کاربری‌های</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">ممکن،</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">با</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">لحاظ</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">نمودن</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">هزینه‌های</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">زیست‌محیطی،</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">از</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">لحاظ</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">اقتصادی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">توجیه‌پذیر</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">نیست. در</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">مدل ارزیابی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">پویا</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">نیز</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">از</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">میان</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">3</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">سناریو</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">تعریف</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">شده،</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">2</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">سناریو</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">در</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">بلندمدت</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">به‌طو</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">کامل</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">غیر</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">اقتصادی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">و</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">1</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">سناریو (</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">تبدیل مرتع</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">به</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">واحد</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">مسکونی)</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">با</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">لحاظ</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">نمودن</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">ملاحظات</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">زیست‌محیطی</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">توجیه‌پذیر</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">می</span></span> <span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">باشند</span></span><span dir="LTR"><span style="font-family:b lotus;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;">.</span></span></span><span style="font-family:b nazanin;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;"> همچنین میزان تغیرات طی این دوره در کل عرصه‌های مرتعی به کاربری‌های دیگر حدود 33466 هکتار بوده که با توجه به متوسط ارزش سالانه هر هکتار مرتع از حیث تولید کالا و خدمات، خسارتی به میزان 1657 میلیارد ریال به جامعه وارد شده است.</span></span> Today, natural resources as a production factor for economic growth and development in developing countries, are threatened by change. Through the production of rangeland ecosystem goods and services are very valuable economic and environmental aspects that changing and requires a comprehensive and complete assessment and economic analysis. The purpose of this study, the benefit-cost analysis of rangeland land use changes in East of Mazandaran province with taking into account the environmental costs along other costs and benefits as well as environmental damage. Cost and benefit values change from 2003 to 2015 and it is estimated using the average annual inflation rate over a 30-year period by the year 2035. The results in the static evaluation of the of all 12 current and possible use change scenarios showed that none of the possible applications, with regard to environmental costs, cannot be economically justified. Of the three scenarios defined in the dynamic evaluation model, two completely non-economic scenario in the long run and one scenario (converting rangeland into housing units) are justified with regard to environmental considerations. During this period, the rate of change in total 33466 hectares of forest to other uses and consider the average annual value of hectares of forest in terms of ecosystem goods and services, damage to the amount of 1657 billion Rials in the community.<br> &nbsp; تحلیل هزینه منفعت, تغییر کاربری اراضی, کالا و خدمات اکوسیستمی, مراتع, استان مازندران. Green cost benefit analysis, Land use changes, Ecosystem goods and services, Rangeland, Mazandaran province. 207 221 http://rangelandsrm.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-287-10&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Komeil Jahanifar کمیل جهانی‌فر 10031947532846006846 10031947532846006846 No Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch Hamid Amirnejad حمید امیرنژاد 10031947532846006847 10031947532846006847 Yes Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources Zahra Abedi زهرا عابدی 10031947532846006848 10031947532846006848 No Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch Alireza Vafaeenejad علیرضا وفایی‌نژاد 10031947532846006849 10031947532846006849 No Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch